William Contreras

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres

Published Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Walker Buehler has allowed 5 HR in 20.7 IP over his last 5 starts (2.17 HR/9), against 1.69 on the season — worse lately. 4 home runs in his last 4 starts (2.29 per nine, against a league average near 1.25). 0 in his last 5, 1 in his last 10, 4 in his last 15 (0.19 a game weighted toward the most recent, 0.12 on the season).

THE NUMBERS

rank

player id

661388

player name

William Contreras

team

Milwaukee Brewers

match

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres

odds

+700

odds source

market

season hr

hr rate per game

0.12

hr in last10

hr in last15

opposing pitcher

Walker Buehler

opposing pitcher era

4.79

park factor

105

statcast line

Statcast: 8.5% barrel rate, 44.1% hard-hit across 640 PA (league is roughly 7.5% and 39%).

hr score

27.7

barrel rate

8.5

hard hit rate

44.1

batted ball line

25.6% of his batted balls this season are fly balls (league is near 25%). His batted-ball outs are going up lately — 66% caught in the air over his last 15 games against 56% on the season.

air out rate

0.564

platoon line

Against right-handers this season: 14 HR in 408 AB (0.422 SLG over 457 PA).

opposing pitcher hr9

2.17

opposing pitcher hr line

Walker Buehler has allowed 5 HR in 20.7 IP over his last 5 starts (2.17 HR/9), against 1.69 on the season — worse lately.

line

18 HR this season (0.12/game) · 1 of last 10 games with a HR

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.