EDGEAI
MLBhr watch
Jonathan Aranda
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Published Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Gerrit Cole has allowed 9 HR in 28.2 IP over his last 5 starts (2.87 HR/9), against 1.64 on the season — worse lately. Over the last 21 days he has allowed 15.5% barrels, 94 mph average exit velocity, 24.1% fly balls across 58 batted balls (league is near 8% barrels, 89 mph, 25% fly balls). Over his last 21 days: 12.5% barrels, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 30% fly balls across 40 batted balls (league is near 8% barrels, 89 mph, 25% fly balls).
THE NUMBERS
rank
3
player id
666018
player name
Jonathan Aranda
team
Tampa Bay Rays
match
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
odds
+650
odds source
market
season hr
22
hr rate per game
0.15
hr in last10
2
hr in last15
5
opposing pitcher
Gerrit Cole
opposing pitcher era
3.71
park factor
117
statcast line
Statcast: 10% barrel rate, 45.9% hard-hit across 648 PA (league is roughly 7.5% and 39%).
hr score
96.4
barrel rate
10
hard hit rate
45.9
batted ball line
31.3% of his batted balls this season are fly balls (league is near 25%). His batted-ball outs are going down lately — 43% caught in the air over his last 15 games against 55% on the season.
air out rate
0.553
platoon line
Against right-handers this season: 19 HR in 406 AB (0.478 SLG over 468 PA).
opposing pitcher hr9
2.87
opposing pitcher hr line
Gerrit Cole has allowed 9 HR in 28.2 IP over his last 5 starts (2.87 HR/9), against 1.64 on the season — worse lately.
line
22 HR this season (0.15/game) · 2 of last 10 games with a HR
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.