EDGEAI
MLBhr watch
Jonathan Aranda
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Published Saturday, October 3, 2026
Gerrit Cole has allowed 9 HR in 27.4 IP over his last 5 starts (2.96 HR/9), against 1.54 on the season — worse lately. 9 home runs in his last 4 starts (3.63 per nine, against a league average near 1.25). Over the last 21 days he has allowed 11.1% barrels, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, 24.4% fly balls across 45 batted balls (league is near 8% barrels, 89 mph, 25% fly balls).
THE NUMBERS
rank
4
player id
666018
player name
Jonathan Aranda
team
Tampa Bay Rays
match
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
odds
+750
odds source
market
season hr
22
hr rate per game
0.14
hr in last10
1
hr in last15
3
opposing pitcher
Gerrit Cole
opposing pitcher era
3.7
park factor
104
statcast line
Statcast: 9.9% barrel rate, 46% hard-hit across 668 PA (league is roughly 7.5% and 39%).
hr score
60.9
barrel rate
9.9
hard hit rate
46
batted ball line
31.3% of his batted balls this season are fly balls (league is near 25%).
air out rate
0.553
platoon line
Against right-handers this season: 19 HR in 416 AB (0.471 SLG over 478 PA).
opposing pitcher hr9
2.96
opposing pitcher hr line
Gerrit Cole has allowed 9 HR in 27.4 IP over his last 5 starts (2.96 HR/9), against 1.54 on the season — worse lately.
line
22 HR this season (0.14/game) · 1 of last 10 games with a HR
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.