EDGEAI
MLBhr watch
Carson Williams
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Published Saturday, October 3, 2026
Gerrit Cole has allowed 9 HR in 27.4 IP over his last 5 starts (2.96 HR/9), against 1.54 on the season — worse lately. 9 home runs in his last 4 starts (3.63 per nine, against a league average near 1.25). Over the last 21 days he has allowed 11.1% barrels, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, 24.4% fly balls across 45 batted balls (league is near 8% barrels, 89 mph, 25% fly balls).
THE NUMBERS
rank
5
player id
700246
player name
Carson Williams
team
Tampa Bay Rays
match
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
odds
+300
odds source
estimated
season hr
1
hr rate per game
0.06
hr in last10
1
hr in last15
1
opposing pitcher
Gerrit Cole
opposing pitcher era
3.7
park factor
104
hr score
41.6
opposing pitcher hr9
2.96
opposing pitcher hr line
Gerrit Cole has allowed 9 HR in 27.4 IP over his last 5 starts (2.96 HR/9), against 1.54 on the season — worse lately.
line
1 HR this season (0.06/game) · 1 of last 10 games with a HR
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.