EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+11 pts

Max Muncy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Tyler Phillips throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Tyler Phillips throws it 24% of the time, and Max Muncy strikes out 56% of the time against it across 25 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Saturday, September 12, 2026

Max Muncy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Tyler Phillips throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Tyler Phillips throws it 24% of the time, and Max Muncy strikes out 56% of the time against it across 25 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Max Muncy Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
571970
player name
Max Muncy
team
Los Angeles Dodgers
matchup
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
pitcher name
Tyler Phillips
direction
vulnerable
headline
+11 pts
weighted krate
0.357
own baseline
0.252
k delta
0.105
weighted avg
0.188
mix covered
0.907
detail
Max Muncy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Tyler Phillips throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Tyler Phillips throws it 24% of the time, and Max Muncy strikes out 56% of the time against it across 25 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.