EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+9 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Sunday, September 27, 2026
Willson Contreras is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Shota Imanaga throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Shota Imanaga throws it 35% of the time, and Willson Contreras strikes out 50% of the time against it across 16 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Willson Contreras Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
575929
player name
Willson Contreras
team
Boston Red Sox
matchup
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
pitcher name
Shota Imanaga
direction
vulnerable
headline
+9 pts
weighted krate
0.342
own baseline
0.252
k delta
0.09
weighted avg
0.197
mix covered
0.893
detail
Willson Contreras is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Shota Imanaga throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Shota Imanaga throws it 35% of the time, and Willson Contreras strikes out 50% of the time against it across 16 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.