EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+9 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Manny Machado is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 30% of the time against the kind of pitches Kevin Gausman throws, compared with 21% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Kevin Gausman throws it 39% of the time, and Manny Machado strikes out 36% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Manny Machado Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
592518
player name
Manny Machado
team
San Diego Padres
matchup
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
pitcher name
Kevin Gausman
direction
vulnerable
headline
+9 pts
weighted krate
0.303
own baseline
0.213
k delta
0.09
weighted avg
0.207
mix covered
0.898
detail
Manny Machado is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 30% of the time against the kind of pitches Kevin Gausman throws, compared with 21% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Kevin Gausman throws it 39% of the time, and Manny Machado strikes out 36% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.