EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+10 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Saturday, September 19, 2026
Trevor Story is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 43% of the time against the kind of pitches Freddy Peralta throws, compared with 32% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Freddy Peralta throws it 53% of the time, and Trevor Story strikes out 43% of the time against it across 58 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Trevor Story Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
596115
player name
Trevor Story
team
Boston Red Sox
matchup
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
pitcher name
Freddy Peralta
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.425
own baseline
0.322
k delta
0.103
weighted avg
0.238
mix covered
0.889
detail
Trevor Story is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 43% of the time against the kind of pitches Freddy Peralta throws, compared with 32% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Freddy Peralta throws it 53% of the time, and Trevor Story strikes out 43% of the time against it across 58 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.