EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+8 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Saturday, September 19, 2026
Dansby Swanson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Nick Lodolo throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Nick Lodolo throws it 25% of the time, and Dansby Swanson strikes out 54% of the time against it across 24 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
621020
player name
Dansby Swanson
team
Chicago Cubs
matchup
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
pitcher name
Nick Lodolo
direction
vulnerable
headline
+8 pts
weighted krate
0.313
own baseline
0.232
k delta
0.081
weighted avg
0.183
mix covered
1
detail
Dansby Swanson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Nick Lodolo throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Nick Lodolo throws it 25% of the time, and Dansby Swanson strikes out 54% of the time against it across 24 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.