EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+8 pts

Matt Olson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Andrew Painter throws, compared with 26% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the slider: Andrew Painter throws it 19% of the time, and Matt Olson strikes out 41% of the time against it across 74 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 67% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Sunday, September 13, 2026

Matt Olson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Andrew Painter throws, compared with 26% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the slider: Andrew Painter throws it 19% of the time, and Matt Olson strikes out 41% of the time against it across 74 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 67% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Matt Olson Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
621566
player name
Matt Olson
team
Atlanta Braves
matchup
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
pitcher name
Andrew Painter
direction
vulnerable
headline
+8 pts
weighted krate
0.34
own baseline
0.256
k delta
0.084
weighted avg
0.229
mix covered
0.672
detail
Matt Olson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Andrew Painter throws, compared with 26% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the slider: Andrew Painter throws it 19% of the time, and Matt Olson strikes out 41% of the time against it across 74 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 67% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.