EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+6 pts

Jonah Heim is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Dylan Cease throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the slider: Dylan Cease throws it 30% of the time, and Jonah Heim strikes out 36% of the time against it across 33 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Monday, September 7, 2026

Jonah Heim is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Dylan Cease throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the slider: Dylan Cease throws it 30% of the time, and Jonah Heim strikes out 36% of the time against it across 33 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Jonah Heim Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
641680
player name
Jonah Heim
team
Athletics
matchup
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
pitcher name
Dylan Cease
direction
vulnerable
headline
+6 pts
weighted krate
0.241
own baseline
0.18
k delta
0.061
weighted avg
0.184
mix covered
0.785
detail
Jonah Heim is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Dylan Cease throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the slider: Dylan Cease throws it 30% of the time, and Jonah Heim strikes out 36% of the time against it across 33 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.