EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+11 pts

Jonah Heim is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Braydon Fisher throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the slider: Braydon Fisher throws it 49% of the time, and Jonah Heim strikes out 36% of the time against it across 33 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Jonah Heim is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Braydon Fisher throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the slider: Braydon Fisher throws it 49% of the time, and Jonah Heim strikes out 36% of the time against it across 33 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Jonah Heim Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
641680
player name
Jonah Heim
team
Athletics
matchup
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
pitcher name
Braydon Fisher
direction
vulnerable
headline
+11 pts
weighted krate
0.292
own baseline
0.18
k delta
0.112
weighted avg
0.174
mix covered
0.971
detail
Jonah Heim is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Braydon Fisher throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the slider: Braydon Fisher throws it 49% of the time, and Jonah Heim strikes out 36% of the time against it across 33 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.