EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

Tyler Stephenson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 39% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 24% of the time, and Tyler Stephenson strikes out 70% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Tyler Stephenson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 39% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 24% of the time, and Tyler Stephenson strikes out 70% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
663886
player name
Tyler Stephenson
team
Cincinnati Reds
matchup
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
pitcher name
Casey Mize
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.388
own baseline
0.269
k delta
0.119
weighted avg
0.192
mix covered
0.955
detail
Tyler Stephenson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 39% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 24% of the time, and Tyler Stephenson strikes out 70% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.