EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+10 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Saturday, September 26, 2026
Tyler Stephenson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 37% of the time against the kind of pitches Trey Yesavage throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Trey Yesavage throws it 29% of the time, and Tyler Stephenson strikes out 57% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
663886
player name
Tyler Stephenson
team
Cincinnati Reds
matchup
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
pitcher name
Trey Yesavage
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.37
own baseline
0.268
k delta
0.102
weighted avg
0.187
mix covered
1
detail
Tyler Stephenson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 37% of the time against the kind of pitches Trey Yesavage throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Trey Yesavage throws it 29% of the time, and Tyler Stephenson strikes out 57% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.