EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

LaMonte Wade Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Merrill Kelly throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Merrill Kelly throws it 28% of the time, and LaMonte Wade Jr. strikes out 62% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Friday, September 4, 2026

LaMonte Wade Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Merrill Kelly throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Merrill Kelly throws it 28% of the time, and LaMonte Wade Jr. strikes out 62% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
664774
player name
LaMonte Wade Jr.
team
Houston Astros
matchup
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
pitcher name
Merrill Kelly
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.375
own baseline
0.254
k delta
0.121
weighted avg
0.204
mix covered
0.787
detail
LaMonte Wade Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Merrill Kelly throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Merrill Kelly throws it 28% of the time, and LaMonte Wade Jr. strikes out 62% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.