EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+8 pts

Jake McCarthy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 25% of the time against the kind of pitches Grant Holmes throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the slider: Grant Holmes throws it 37% of the time, and Jake McCarthy strikes out 38% of the time against it across 55 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Friday, August 28, 2026

Jake McCarthy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 25% of the time against the kind of pitches Grant Holmes throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the slider: Grant Holmes throws it 37% of the time, and Jake McCarthy strikes out 38% of the time against it across 55 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
664983
player name
Jake McCarthy
team
Colorado Rockies
matchup
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
pitcher name
Grant Holmes
direction
vulnerable
headline
+8 pts
weighted krate
0.25
own baseline
0.17
k delta
0.08
weighted avg
0.267
mix covered
0.776
detail
Jake McCarthy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 25% of the time against the kind of pitches Grant Holmes throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the slider: Grant Holmes throws it 37% of the time, and Jake McCarthy strikes out 38% of the time against it across 55 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.