EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+10 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Saturday, September 19, 2026
Griffin Conine is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 40% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 24% of the time, and Griffin Conine strikes out 56% of the time against it across 9 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
665052
player name
Griffin Conine
team
Miami Marlins
matchup
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
pitcher name
Casey Mize
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.401
own baseline
0.299
k delta
0.102
weighted avg
0.243
mix covered
0.859
detail
Griffin Conine is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 40% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 24% of the time, and Griffin Conine strikes out 56% of the time against it across 9 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.