EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+8 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Fernando Tatis Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Kevin Gausman throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Kevin Gausman throws it 39% of the time, and Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out 38% of the time against it across 16 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
665487
player name
Fernando Tatis Jr.
team
San Diego Padres
matchup
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
pitcher name
Kevin Gausman
direction
vulnerable
headline
+8 pts
weighted krate
0.268
own baseline
0.186
k delta
0.082
weighted avg
0.159
mix covered
0.898
detail
Fernando Tatis Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Kevin Gausman throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Kevin Gausman throws it 39% of the time, and Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out 38% of the time against it across 16 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.