EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+14 pts

Rafael Marchán is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Martín Pérez throws, compared with 15% against everyone else — 14 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Martín Pérez throws it 31% of the time, and Rafael Marchán strikes out 50% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 66% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Saturday, September 5, 2026

Rafael Marchán is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Martín Pérez throws, compared with 15% against everyone else — 14 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Martín Pérez throws it 31% of the time, and Rafael Marchán strikes out 50% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 66% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Rafael Marchán Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
665561
player name
Rafael Marchán
team
Philadelphia Phillies
matchup
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
pitcher name
Martín Pérez
direction
vulnerable
headline
+14 pts
weighted krate
0.293
own baseline
0.152
k delta
0.141
weighted avg
0.118
mix covered
0.661
detail
Rafael Marchán is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Martín Pérez throws, compared with 15% against everyone else — 14 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Martín Pérez throws it 31% of the time, and Rafael Marchán strikes out 50% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 66% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.