EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+5 pts

Rafael Marchán is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 20% of the time against the kind of pitches Chris Sale throws, compared with 15% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the slider: Chris Sale throws it 40% of the time, and Rafael Marchán strikes out 33% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Friday, September 11, 2026

Rafael Marchán is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 20% of the time against the kind of pitches Chris Sale throws, compared with 15% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the slider: Chris Sale throws it 40% of the time, and Rafael Marchán strikes out 33% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Rafael Marchán Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
665561
player name
Rafael Marchán
team
Philadelphia Phillies
matchup
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
pitcher name
Chris Sale
direction
vulnerable
headline
+5 pts
weighted krate
0.204
own baseline
0.152
k delta
0.052
weighted avg
0.05
mix covered
0.912
detail
Rafael Marchán is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 20% of the time against the kind of pitches Chris Sale throws, compared with 15% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the slider: Chris Sale throws it 40% of the time, and Rafael Marchán strikes out 33% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.