EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+7 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Miguel Amaya is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 33% of the time against the kind of pitches Janson Junk throws, compared with 26% against everyone else — 7 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Janson Junk throws it 18% of the time, and Miguel Amaya strikes out 46% of the time against it across 24 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
665804
player name
Miguel Amaya
team
Chicago Cubs
matchup
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
pitcher name
Janson Junk
direction
vulnerable
headline
+7 pts
weighted krate
0.327
own baseline
0.261
k delta
0.066
weighted avg
0.233
mix covered
0.866
detail
Miguel Amaya is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 33% of the time against the kind of pitches Janson Junk throws, compared with 26% against everyone else — 7 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Janson Junk throws it 18% of the time, and Miguel Amaya strikes out 46% of the time against it across 24 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.