EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Jesús Luzardo throws, compared with 12% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Jesús Luzardo throws it 38% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 50% of the time against it across 16 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Friday, August 21, 2026

José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Jesús Luzardo throws, compared with 12% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Jesús Luzardo throws it 38% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 50% of the time against it across 16 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

José Fermín Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
665877
player name
José Fermín
team
St. Louis Cardinals
matchup
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
pitcher name
Jesús Luzardo
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.239
own baseline
0.123
k delta
0.116
weighted avg
0.218
mix covered
1
detail
José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Jesús Luzardo throws, compared with 12% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Jesús Luzardo throws it 38% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 50% of the time against it across 16 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.