EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+10 pts

José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 23% of the time against the kind of pitches Blade Tidwell throws, compared with 13% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Blade Tidwell throws it 35% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 42% of the time against it across 19 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Wednesday, September 9, 2026

José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 23% of the time against the kind of pitches Blade Tidwell throws, compared with 13% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Blade Tidwell throws it 35% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 42% of the time against it across 19 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

José Fermín Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
665877
player name
José Fermín
team
St. Louis Cardinals
matchup
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
pitcher name
Blade Tidwell
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.231
own baseline
0.128
k delta
0.103
weighted avg
0.209
mix covered
0.833
detail
José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 23% of the time against the kind of pitches Blade Tidwell throws, compared with 13% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Blade Tidwell throws it 35% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 42% of the time against it across 19 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.