EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+6 pts

José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 19% of the time against the kind of pitches Anthony Kay throws, compared with 13% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Anthony Kay throws it 22% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 42% of the time against it across 19 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Friday, September 11, 2026

José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 19% of the time against the kind of pitches Anthony Kay throws, compared with 13% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Anthony Kay throws it 22% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 42% of the time against it across 19 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

José Fermín Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
665877
player name
José Fermín
team
St. Louis Cardinals
matchup
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
pitcher name
Anthony Kay
direction
vulnerable
headline
+6 pts
weighted krate
0.189
own baseline
0.128
k delta
0.061
weighted avg
0.219
mix covered
0.936
detail
José Fermín is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 19% of the time against the kind of pitches Anthony Kay throws, compared with 13% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Anthony Kay throws it 22% of the time, and José Fermín strikes out 42% of the time against it across 19 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.