EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+6 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Sunday, October 4, 2026
Freddy Fermin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Logan Henderson throws, compared with 21% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Logan Henderson throws it 35% of the time, and Freddy Fermin strikes out 41% of the time against it across 17 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
666023
player name
Freddy Fermin
team
San Diego Padres
matchup
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
pitcher name
Logan Henderson
direction
vulnerable
headline
+6 pts
weighted krate
0.267
own baseline
0.21
k delta
0.057
weighted avg
0.19
mix covered
0.969
detail
Freddy Fermin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Logan Henderson throws, compared with 21% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Logan Henderson throws it 35% of the time, and Freddy Fermin strikes out 41% of the time against it across 17 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.