EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+5 pts

Randy Arozarena is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Jacob deGrom throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Jacob deGrom throws it 42% of the time, and Randy Arozarena strikes out 31% of the time against it across 160 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Thursday, September 10, 2026

Randy Arozarena is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Jacob deGrom throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Jacob deGrom throws it 42% of the time, and Randy Arozarena strikes out 31% of the time against it across 160 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
668227
player name
Randy Arozarena
team
Seattle Mariners
matchup
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
pitcher name
Jacob deGrom
direction
vulnerable
headline
+5 pts
weighted krate
0.265
own baseline
0.215
k delta
0.05
weighted avg
0.256
mix covered
0.909
detail
Randy Arozarena is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Jacob deGrom throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Jacob deGrom throws it 42% of the time, and Randy Arozarena strikes out 31% of the time against it across 160 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.