EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+5 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Monday, October 5, 2026
Jake Rogers is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 35% of the time against the kind of pitches Gavin Williams throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Gavin Williams throws it 22% of the time, and Jake Rogers strikes out 75% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Jake Rogers Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
668670
player name
Jake Rogers
team
Chicago White Sox
matchup
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
pitcher name
Gavin Williams
direction
vulnerable
headline
+5 pts
weighted krate
0.348
own baseline
0.298
k delta
0.05
weighted avg
0.209
mix covered
0.941
detail
Jake Rogers is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 35% of the time against the kind of pitches Gavin Williams throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Gavin Williams throws it 22% of the time, and Jake Rogers strikes out 75% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.