EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+11 pts

Ryan Vilade is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 33% of the time against the kind of pitches Sean Manaea throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Sean Manaea throws it 31% of the time, and Ryan Vilade strikes out 50% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Ryan Vilade is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 33% of the time against the kind of pitches Sean Manaea throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Sean Manaea throws it 31% of the time, and Ryan Vilade strikes out 50% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Ryan Vilade Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
668723
player name
Ryan Vilade
team
Tampa Bay Rays
matchup
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
pitcher name
Sean Manaea
direction
vulnerable
headline
+11 pts
weighted krate
0.331
own baseline
0.225
k delta
0.106
weighted avg
0.182
mix covered
0.897
detail
Ryan Vilade is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 33% of the time against the kind of pitches Sean Manaea throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Sean Manaea throws it 31% of the time, and Ryan Vilade strikes out 50% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.