EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+7 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Sean Murphy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Jesús Luzardo throws, compared with 31% against everyone else — 7 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Jesús Luzardo throws it 38% of the time, and Sean Murphy strikes out 50% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Sean Murphy Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
669221
player name
Sean Murphy
team
Atlanta Braves
matchup
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
pitcher name
Jesús Luzardo
direction
vulnerable
headline
+7 pts
weighted krate
0.377
own baseline
0.308
k delta
0.069
weighted avg
0.127
mix covered
1
detail
Sean Murphy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Jesús Luzardo throws, compared with 31% against everyone else — 7 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Jesús Luzardo throws it 38% of the time, and Sean Murphy strikes out 50% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.