EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+5 pts

STRIKES OUT MORE

Published Sunday, October 4, 2026

Sean Murphy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Blake Snell throws, compared with 31% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Blake Snell throws it 18% of the time, and Sean Murphy strikes out 56% of the time against it across 9 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Sean Murphy Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
669221
player name
Sean Murphy
team
Atlanta Braves
matchup
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
pitcher name
Blake Snell
direction
vulnerable
headline
+5 pts
weighted krate
0.358
own baseline
0.306
k delta
0.052
weighted avg
0.183
mix covered
0.781
detail
Sean Murphy is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Blake Snell throws, compared with 31% against everyone else — 5 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Blake Snell throws it 18% of the time, and Sean Murphy strikes out 56% of the time against it across 9 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.