EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

-8 pts

STRIKES OUT LESS

Published Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Austin Wells is a safer bet to put the ball in play tonight than he usually is, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 19% of the time against the kind of pitches Payton Tolle throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 8 points better. The reason is the cutter: Payton Tolle throws it 19% of the time, and Austin Wells strikes out 10% of the time against it across 30 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE NUMBERS

player id
669224
player name
Austin Wells
team
New York Yankees
matchup
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
pitcher name
Payton Tolle
direction
comfortable
headline
-8 pts
weighted krate
0.187
own baseline
0.267
k delta
-0.08
weighted avg
0.253
mix covered
0.879
detail
Austin Wells is a safer bet to put the ball in play tonight than he usually is, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 19% of the time against the kind of pitches Payton Tolle throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 8 points better. The reason is the cutter: Payton Tolle throws it 19% of the time, and Austin Wells strikes out 10% of the time against it across 30 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.