EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+10 pts

Nick Allen is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Andrew Painter throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Andrew Painter throws it 33% of the time, and Nick Allen strikes out 29% of the time against it across 51 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 67% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Nick Allen is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Andrew Painter throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Andrew Painter throws it 33% of the time, and Nick Allen strikes out 29% of the time against it across 51 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 67% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Nick Allen Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
669397
player name
Nick Allen
team
Houston Astros
matchup
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
pitcher name
Andrew Painter
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.308
own baseline
0.204
k delta
0.104
weighted avg
0.215
mix covered
0.672
detail
Nick Allen is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Andrew Painter throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Andrew Painter throws it 33% of the time, and Nick Allen strikes out 29% of the time against it across 51 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 67% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.