EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+10 pts

Josh Smith is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Randy Dobnak throws, compared with 21% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Randy Dobnak throws it 25% of the time, and Josh Smith strikes out 62% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Sunday, September 6, 2026

Josh Smith is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Randy Dobnak throws, compared with 21% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Randy Dobnak throws it 25% of the time, and Josh Smith strikes out 62% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Josh Smith Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
669701
player name
Josh Smith
team
Toronto Blue Jays
matchup
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
pitcher name
Randy Dobnak
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.309
own baseline
0.207
k delta
0.102
weighted avg
0.184
mix covered
0.856
detail
Josh Smith is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Randy Dobnak throws, compared with 21% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Randy Dobnak throws it 25% of the time, and Josh Smith strikes out 62% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.