EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

Michael Harris II is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Michael Harris II strikes out 63% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Sunday, September 6, 2026

Michael Harris II is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Michael Harris II strikes out 63% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Michael Harris II Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
671739
player name
Michael Harris II
team
Atlanta Braves
matchup
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
pitcher name
Aaron Nola
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.317
own baseline
0.199
k delta
0.118
weighted avg
0.247
mix covered
0.916
detail
Michael Harris II is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Michael Harris II strikes out 63% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.