EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+8 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Friday, September 18, 2026
Patrick Bailey is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 33% of the time against the kind of pitches Mason Barnett throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Mason Barnett throws it 49% of the time, and Patrick Bailey strikes out 33% of the time against it across 103 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
672275
player name
Patrick Bailey
team
Cleveland Guardians
matchup
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
pitcher name
Mason Barnett
direction
vulnerable
headline
+8 pts
weighted krate
0.328
own baseline
0.25
k delta
0.078
weighted avg
0.232
mix covered
0.83
detail
Patrick Bailey is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 33% of the time against the kind of pitches Mason Barnett throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 8 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Mason Barnett throws it 49% of the time, and Patrick Bailey strikes out 33% of the time against it across 103 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.