EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+10 pts

José Tena is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 41% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 23% of the time, and José Tena strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Tuesday, September 8, 2026

José Tena is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 41% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 23% of the time, and José Tena strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

José Tena Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
677588
player name
José Tena
team
Washington Nationals
matchup
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
pitcher name
Casey Mize
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.407
own baseline
0.304
k delta
0.103
weighted avg
0.233
mix covered
0.856
detail
José Tena is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 41% of the time against the kind of pitches Casey Mize throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Casey Mize throws it 23% of the time, and José Tena strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.