EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+11 pts

Ezequiel Duran is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Logan Gilbert throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Logan Gilbert throws it 14% of the time, and Ezequiel Duran strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Thursday, September 10, 2026

Ezequiel Duran is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Logan Gilbert throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Logan Gilbert throws it 14% of the time, and Ezequiel Duran strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
677649
player name
Ezequiel Duran
team
Texas Rangers
matchup
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
pitcher name
Logan Gilbert
direction
vulnerable
headline
+11 pts
weighted krate
0.342
own baseline
0.232
k delta
0.11
weighted avg
0.224
mix covered
0.792
detail
Ezequiel Duran is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Logan Gilbert throws, compared with 23% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Logan Gilbert throws it 14% of the time, and Ezequiel Duran strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.