EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

Leo Jiménez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Sonny Gray throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Sonny Gray throws it 20% of the time, and Leo Jiménez strikes out 75% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 59% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Leo Jiménez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Sonny Gray throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Sonny Gray throws it 20% of the time, and Leo Jiménez strikes out 75% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 59% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Leo Jiménez Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
677870
player name
Leo Jiménez
team
Miami Marlins
matchup
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
pitcher name
Sonny Gray
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.322
own baseline
0.2
k delta
0.122
weighted avg
0.199
mix covered
0.588
detail
Leo Jiménez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Sonny Gray throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Sonny Gray throws it 20% of the time, and Leo Jiménez strikes out 75% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 59% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.