EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

Leo Jiménez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Randy Dobnak throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Randy Dobnak throws it 25% of the time, and Leo Jiménez strikes out 75% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Leo Jiménez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Randy Dobnak throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Randy Dobnak throws it 25% of the time, and Leo Jiménez strikes out 75% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Leo Jiménez Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
677870
player name
Leo Jiménez
team
Miami Marlins
matchup
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
pitcher name
Randy Dobnak
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.311
own baseline
0.194
k delta
0.117
weighted avg
0.181
mix covered
0.856
detail
Leo Jiménez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Randy Dobnak throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Randy Dobnak throws it 25% of the time, and Leo Jiménez strikes out 75% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.