EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+10 pts

Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Bryce Miller throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Bryce Miller throws it 25% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 65% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Bryce Miller throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Bryce Miller throws it 25% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 65% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
678882
player name
Ceddanne Rafaela
team
Boston Red Sox
matchup
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
pitcher name
Bryce Miller
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.308
own baseline
0.204
k delta
0.104
weighted avg
0.339
mix covered
0.648
detail
Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Bryce Miller throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Bryce Miller throws it 25% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 65% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.