EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+9 pts

Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 38% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Friday, September 4, 2026

Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 38% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
678882
player name
Ceddanne Rafaela
team
Boston Red Sox
matchup
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
pitcher name
Shane Baz
direction
vulnerable
headline
+9 pts
weighted krate
0.288
own baseline
0.202
k delta
0.086
weighted avg
0.218
mix covered
0.823
detail
Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 29% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 38% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.