EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+10 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Sunday, September 27, 2026
Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 30% of the time against the kind of pitches Shota Imanaga throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Shota Imanaga throws it 35% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
678882
player name
Ceddanne Rafaela
team
Boston Red Sox
matchup
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
pitcher name
Shota Imanaga
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.3
own baseline
0.202
k delta
0.098
weighted avg
0.352
mix covered
0.893
detail
Ceddanne Rafaela is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 30% of the time against the kind of pitches Shota Imanaga throws, compared with 20% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Shota Imanaga throws it 35% of the time, and Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.