EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+11 pts

Nick Loftin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Spencer Arrighetti throws, compared with 16% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Spencer Arrighetti throws it 34% of the time, and Nick Loftin strikes out 44% of the time against it across 18 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Thursday, August 27, 2026

Nick Loftin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Spencer Arrighetti throws, compared with 16% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Spencer Arrighetti throws it 34% of the time, and Nick Loftin strikes out 44% of the time against it across 18 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Nick Loftin Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
679845
player name
Nick Loftin
team
Kansas City Royals
matchup
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
pitcher name
Spencer Arrighetti
direction
vulnerable
headline
+11 pts
weighted krate
0.268
own baseline
0.158
k delta
0.11
weighted avg
0.203
mix covered
0.861
detail
Nick Loftin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Spencer Arrighetti throws, compared with 16% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Spencer Arrighetti throws it 34% of the time, and Nick Loftin strikes out 44% of the time against it across 18 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.