EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+10 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Friday, September 25, 2026
Nick Loftin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Gavin Williams throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Gavin Williams throws it 23% of the time, and Nick Loftin strikes out 50% of the time against it across 22 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Nick Loftin Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
679845
player name
Nick Loftin
team
Kansas City Royals
matchup
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
pitcher name
Gavin Williams
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.266
own baseline
0.17
k delta
0.096
weighted avg
0.21
mix covered
0.939
detail
Nick Loftin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches Gavin Williams throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Gavin Williams throws it 23% of the time, and Nick Loftin strikes out 50% of the time against it across 22 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.