EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+9 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Matt McLain is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws it 27% of the time, and Matt McLain strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Matt McLain Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
680574
player name
Matt McLain
team
Cincinnati Reds
matchup
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
pitcher name
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
direction
vulnerable
headline
+9 pts
weighted krate
0.361
own baseline
0.273
k delta
0.088
weighted avg
0.158
mix covered
0.941
detail
Matt McLain is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws it 27% of the time, and Matt McLain strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.