EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+10 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Saturday, September 26, 2026
Matt McLain is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Trey Yesavage throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Trey Yesavage throws it 29% of the time, and Matt McLain strikes out 50% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Matt McLain Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
680574
player name
Matt McLain
team
Cincinnati Reds
matchup
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
pitcher name
Trey Yesavage
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.38
own baseline
0.281
k delta
0.099
weighted avg
0.172
mix covered
1
detail
Matt McLain is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Trey Yesavage throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Trey Yesavage throws it 29% of the time, and Matt McLain strikes out 50% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.