EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+16 pts

Eduardo Valencia is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 44% of the time against the kind of pitches Freddy Peralta throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 16 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Freddy Peralta throws it 53% of the time, and Eduardo Valencia strikes out 50% of the time against it across 20 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 75% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Eduardo Valencia is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 44% of the time against the kind of pitches Freddy Peralta throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 16 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Freddy Peralta throws it 53% of the time, and Eduardo Valencia strikes out 50% of the time against it across 20 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 75% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Eduardo Valencia Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
680664
player name
Eduardo Valencia
team
Detroit Tigers
matchup
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
pitcher name
Freddy Peralta
direction
vulnerable
headline
+16 pts
weighted krate
0.44
own baseline
0.279
k delta
0.161
weighted avg
0.295
mix covered
0.752
detail
Eduardo Valencia is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 44% of the time against the kind of pitches Freddy Peralta throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 16 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Freddy Peralta throws it 53% of the time, and Eduardo Valencia strikes out 50% of the time against it across 20 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 75% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.