EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+9 pts

Richie Palacios is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches AJ Smith-Shawver throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: AJ Smith-Shawver throws it 37% of the time, and Richie Palacios strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Richie Palacios is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches AJ Smith-Shawver throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: AJ Smith-Shawver throws it 37% of the time, and Richie Palacios strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Richie Palacios Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
680700
player name
Richie Palacios
team
Tampa Bay Rays
matchup
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
pitcher name
AJ Smith-Shawver
direction
vulnerable
headline
+9 pts
weighted krate
0.266
own baseline
0.175
k delta
0.091
weighted avg
0.209
mix covered
0.775
detail
Richie Palacios is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 27% of the time against the kind of pitches AJ Smith-Shawver throws, compared with 18% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the splitter: AJ Smith-Shawver throws it 37% of the time, and Richie Palacios strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 78% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.