EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+11 pts

Jarren Duran is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Jarren Duran strikes out 57% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Friday, September 4, 2026

Jarren Duran is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Jarren Duran strikes out 57% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Jarren Duran Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
680776
player name
Jarren Duran
team
Boston Red Sox
matchup
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
pitcher name
Shane Baz
direction
vulnerable
headline
+11 pts
weighted krate
0.384
own baseline
0.278
k delta
0.106
weighted avg
0.203
mix covered
0.823
detail
Jarren Duran is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 38% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 11 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Jarren Duran strikes out 57% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.