EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

Francisco Alvarez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 42% of the time against the kind of pitches Kyle Harrison throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Kyle Harrison throws it 58% of the time, and Francisco Alvarez strikes out 42% of the time against it across 81 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 58% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Francisco Alvarez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 42% of the time against the kind of pitches Kyle Harrison throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Kyle Harrison throws it 58% of the time, and Francisco Alvarez strikes out 42% of the time against it across 81 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 58% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
682626
player name
Francisco Alvarez
team
New York Mets
matchup
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
pitcher name
Kyle Harrison
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.42
own baseline
0.299
k delta
0.121
weighted avg
0.233
mix covered
0.578
detail
Francisco Alvarez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 42% of the time against the kind of pitches Kyle Harrison throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Kyle Harrison throws it 58% of the time, and Francisco Alvarez strikes out 42% of the time against it across 81 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 58% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.